Tariff Tensions: Why Trade Conflicts May Hurt More Than Guns?

    'When we talk about wars and their impact on economies, the immediate image that comes to mind is of tanks rolling through cities, buildings crumbling, and lives lost. But what about trade wars? 

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The recent tariffs imposed by the U.S., especially on China, are an old topic to discuss. However, it forces us to reconsider which type of conflict is more damaging to the global economy: geographical wars or trade wars. Since 2018, the U.S. has imposed tariffs on over $350 billion worth of Chinese imports, affecting around 18% of all U.S. imports, equivalent to 2.6% of U.S. GDP. China fired back with tariffs on $100 billion of U.S. goods, impacting 11% of its imports, or 3.6% of its GDP. For American households, these tariffs have translated into an average annual cost increase of about $1,300 in 2025, squeezing wallets and raising prices on everything from electronics to clothing. Two-thirds of dutiable products in the U.S. have seen price hikes, hitting consumers and businesses alike

    At first glance, these numbers might seem like just political posturing, but the economic consequences are far from trivial.  U.S. imports from China of tariffed goods dropped by 12.5% between 2017 and 2022, while imports from other countries surged in the same categories, reshaping global supply chains and trade flows. The ripple effect is global: Oxford Economics estimates that tariffs could shave 0.5% off global GDP through 2026, and the U.S. alone could see a 1% GDP contraction.  This isn’t just about numbers on paper — consumers face higher prices, manufacturers grapple with disrupted supply chains, and businesses delay investments due to uncertainty. According to The Wall Street Journal, 'U.S. plans to isolate China, however, the same journal claims that China's economy grew before tariffs kicked in. 

Source: Author's collection

    

Now, compare this to a traditional geographical war. The destruction is visible and immediate: infrastructure is damaged, production halts, and economies shrink sharply. But these wars often have a clear end, followed by reconstruction and recovery efforts. Trade wars, however, are more insidious. They quietly erode economic efficiency, fragment global markets, and can last for years, causing prolonged uncertainty and stagnation. So, which war is more injurious to the economy? While geographical wars bring physical devastation, trade wars inflict a slow-burning economic wound that can be just as harmful, if not more so, over time. The U.S.-China tariff conflict shows us that economic battles fought through tariffs don’t just hurt the targeted country—they ripple across the global economy, raising costs for everyone and stalling growth. 

    In the end, the lesson is clear: economic warfare through tariffs may not topple buildings, but it can destabilize economies in ways that are harder to repair. Perhaps it’s time we rethink how we wage these battles and focus on dialogue over tariffs.'

Thanks for reading

Farhana Yeasmin